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« July 2008 | Main | September 2008 »
So this is a conservative, right-to-life, mooseburger-eating, caribou-hunting, "hockey mom" of five who's now governor of Alaska?
Say what? Photoshop, anyone?
What was that McCain said about entering wife Cindy in a topless "Miss Buffalo Chip" biker chick contest in Sturgis, SD?
"I'm just very blessed." -- Gov. Sarah Palin
Happy 72nd Birthday, John!
Photo obtained from CBS4.
"Only an asshole would put together a budget like this ... I wouldn't call you an asshole unless you really were an asshole." --Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), to Budget Committee Chairman and fellow Repulican Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), during a Senate budget hearing
The Russian Parliament unanimously voted to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, sticking it to Georgia (again).
So South Ossetia receives its independence. I think Belarus has also offered them recognition. What I'd now love to see is South Ossetia decide to unite with their North Ossetian brothers and sisters, and both decide to become an independent country, which would mean that North Ossetia would have to secede from Russia. Wonder how supportive Putin and Medvedev would be of such a move?
Can you spell C-H-E-C-H-N-Y-A?
None of this has deterred Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is still talking tough despite getting his country's butt kicked.
To show support for Georgia, President Bush has dispatched Vice President Cheney to Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Italy next week. The first three visits are understandable, but Italy? Perhaps Trieste is thinking of merging with Slovenia.
Actually, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is a buddy of Vladimir Putin, so perhaps Silvio will put in a good word.
I hope the Dickster advises Saakashvili to keep his mouth shut. He will no doubt reassure energy-rich Azerbaijan, which must be feeling a bit nervous right about now. Azerbaijan is the origin of the BTC (oil) and BTE (gas) pipelines and is pushing for a Trans-Caspian pipeline. Russia is not pleased with the two existing pipelines, and would surely be "displeased" with a Trans-Caspian line, which could funnel more gas to Europe from Turkmenistan and Kazkahstan, bypassing Russia.
Interesting that Cheney is not visiting Armenia, the third South Caucasian country. Several reasons for this:
"Beat your own and others will fear you." -- Russian saying
Leave it to Maureen Dowd of the New York Times to speak about the unspeakable. Her column in the 24 August 2008 edition talks about John McCain's "ability" to get a pass because of his POW experience.
Give it a read.
Bad girl, Maureen!
"I think if you're just talking about income, how about $5 million?" -- Sen. John McCain, after being asked by Rev. Rick Warren to define "rich," Lake Forest, California, Aug. 16, 2008
So what may be the biggest punishment exacted on Russia in response to its invasion of Georgia? Threats from NATO? Nasty comments from Condoleeza Rice? Saber-rattling? Efforts to kick it out of the G8? No returned phone calls from President Bush?
Nope.
Try investors pulling their money out of Russia - $16B alone since the kerfuffle started. They are concerned over increasing Russian authoritarianism, harassment of employees, instability, and even nationalization.
That is not a lot of money compared to what Russia has on hand, but it is not a good sign, especially since Russia will need Western expertise and capital to access some of its more technically-challenging hydrocarbon deposits.
Ain't capitalism wonderful!
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." --President George W. Bush
As I indicated recently I bought a round-trip ticket to Tbilisi a few days before Georgia invaded South Ossetia and the Russians invaded Georgia.
Since it now looks like my 6-10 October NATO project meeting will go ahead I have redoubled my efforts to get a room reservation at my favorite hotel in Tbilisi. Since the concept of online reservations has not penetrated Georgia as well as the Russian army, I had been emailing the hotel since 30 July with no response. Faxes didn't go through, either.
So I picked up the phone and called, and got an English-speaking young woman. She said they had plenty of rooms, so I made the reservations for me and my European colleagues.
They are now quoting room rates in euros instead of dollars. Can't say that I blame them.
I then asked her how things were. She laughed weakly and sighed, "We're bored with the Russians now. We want them to go home."
I can imagine.
"In Russia we had just two TV channels. Channel One was propaganda. Channel Two was a KGB officer ordering you to turn back to Channel One at once." -- Yakov Smirnoff
I received an email from colleague Larry Cerrillo about a group from Texas, Thirst No More, that is seeking a well driller to help train locals in mud rotary drilling. The stint would likely be around 60 days with expenses paid and some salary.
Since the South Caucasus is in Campanastan's back yard, I've assembled its crack tream of foreign policy wonks to assess the current situation in the region using a Q&A format. After sobering up from a weekend of chugging fermented mare's milk, they offered the following.
Q: Why is the Russian military "hanging around" in Georgia?
A: Because they can, and no one can do anything about it.
Q: Who is the world's one remaining superpower?
A: There is none. Other countries do not invade allies of superpowers, or at least not without suffering serious consequences.
Q: What's the big deal about the oil and gas pipelines through Georgia?
A: Look at the map. The only way to pipe oil and gas to Europe from the Caspian Basin and environs without going through Russia or Iran is through the South Caucasus.
Q: Do you think Azerbaijan is feeling a bit nervous right now?
A: Duhhhh.....
Q: What about plans for the Trans-Caspian Sea pipeline?
A: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan may want to rethink that one.
Q: So what's the problem with pipelines through Russia?
A: You don't live in Europe, do you? Can you say "energy as a foreign-policy tool?"
Q: So is this fuss all about energy resources and not South Ossetia?
A: Boy, you're perceptive. It's mainly about energy, but with an element of payback to the West and a warning to former Russian satellites. South Ossetia just provided a good excuse.
Q: Should the USA push ahead with plans to wean itself from oil and gas?
A: Let me think about that one for a while.
Q: Why did the Russian invasion catch everyone off guard?
A: Probably because the USA's "intelligence assets" were tied up with Iraq and Afghanistan.
Q: Do you think the Russian reaction was excessive?
A: Do fish swim?
Q: Where were the USA's vaunted "Russia experts", Secretary of Defense Gates and Secretary of State Rice?
A: Gates was sleeping off a bender, and Rice had her weekly piano lesson.
Q: What about President Bush?
A: He was consumed with beach volleyball in Beijing and trying to figure why he "misunderestimated" Putin's soul.
Q: What should the USA do with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili?
A: Send Victor and Rocco from Jersey to 'splain things to him, like what a "sucker punch" is and how to avoid antagonizing Russia, but then reaffirm the USA's friendship and support for NATO membership.
Q: Why is NATO involved in the South Caucasus? It's a long way from the North Atlantic.
A: In case you hadn''t heard, NATO now stands for Need All That Oil.
Q: Should the USA and Europe forget about supporting former Soviet republics and satellites?
A: Not on your life -- see the quote below.
“Poland, by deploying [the missile system] is exposing itself to a strike - 100 per cent. ” -- General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the Russian armed forces' deputy chief of staff, before explaining that Russian military doctrine sanctioned the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them”.
Eoin Carroll had an excellent article in the 14 August 2008 edition of the Christian Science Monitor on 'Four offshore-drilling myths'. The photo by Brett Coomer is from the story.
Here are the myths; I will leave the details to the article.
Let me just comment on #2. As the article correctly notes, the offshore oil would belong to whomever pumps it out: ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, et al. They would sell the oil to whomever they chose to sell it to, at whatever price the market dictates. It would not necessarily be America's oil.
"The American people deserve more access to American oil." -- Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), quoted in the article
Altruism. Gas. Oil. Those are the West's interests in the South Caucasus, but not in that order. My highlighting and emboldening of the words 'Gas: and "Oil" is not a mitsake; I'd put "Altruism" in smaller font if I could.
Georgia is a transshipment corridor for both oil and natural gas. The "experts" emphasize the major oil pipeline, the BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline that daily transports about 1% of the world's daily petroleum output, about 1 million barrels. The oil comes from Azerbaijan. The solid orange line shows the BTC pipeline route, which avoids Russian and Armenian territory and terminates at the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
From a geopolitical standpoint, another pipeline, the BTE gas line, which follows the BTC corridor but terminates at the inland Turkish city of Erzurum, is far more important. There, the BTE line connects to the Turkish pipeline system, which will ultimately lead to Europe via planned pipelines. The BTE pipeline has excess capacity, and Azerbaijan is trying to get its neighbor across the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan, to partner on building an undersea pipeline that would link to the BTE line.
Turkmenistan currently ships its gas via a Russian-built pipeline. Russia's Gazprom buys gas from Turkmenistan and sells it for about five times that price. The Turkmens were not excited about this but had little alternative to sell their gas. But shipping their gas through the BTE pipeline would provide them a much better price and would of course, anger the Russians. When I was in Baku last May, my colleague told me the Turkmens are considering the deal.
Kazakhstan is also considering the pipeline partnership. Boy, would that enrage the Russians!
Something interesting: I read a report stating that Gazprom has offered to buy Azerbaijan's total gas output at current market prices.
My take: former Soviet republics and satellites may think twice before routing their gas and oil around, instead of through, Russia.
Of course, if the USA had friendly relations with Iran, we wouldn't have to worry about pipelines through the South Caucasus.
"Georgia will get an adequate response for aggression against South Ossetia." -- Vladimir Putin, 8 August 2008
President George W. Bush, distraught over Russia's attack on Georgia, implored Russian Prime Minister/Super President Vladimir Putin not to bomb Atlanta.
Both were attending the Beijing Olympics, and are shown in the ceremonial garb the Chinese force everyone to wear.
"For Christ's sake," Bush said, "If you're going to bomb a Georgia city, bomb some worthless place like Macon or Columbus. No - forget that last one, that's the capital of Ohio. Maybe Brunswick or Valdosta."
"Atlanta is the capital of Georgia and its economic hub. Its destruction would wreak havoc on the Southeast USA." Bush noted that the Atlanta area is also home to such national icons as America's Team, the Atlanta Braves; Peachtree Street; UN benefactor Ted Turner;
Coca-Cola; the famed Varsity Restaurant and Drive-In (world's largest); the Big Chicken; Margaret Mitchell's home; and the busiest airport in the world, Hartsfield-Jackson International.
Bush noted that delays at HJI often snarl air traffic throughout the Southeast, and that is unacceptable. "That's why I don't fly to Georgia very much," he added, "My God, it makes O'Hare look like a church parking lot on a Monday morning. If you bomb it, that'll make the problem more worser than it is."
Bush said he realized that Russia was upset over Georgia's attack on South Carolina. But he also noted that South Carolina had been "asking for it", as they are a bunch of "atavistic terrorists" who have "made life miserable" for Georgia's President, Sonny Perdue, by frequently lobbing rotten, worm-infested peaches into Georgia. "Georgia is surrounded by unfriendly places, and you can't blame President Perdue for taking action," Bush said. "Don't misunderestimate Mr. Perdue, he's good at stratergerizing," he concluded.
He also expressed dismay that the fighing had spilled over into Georgia's western province, Alabama, with ethnic Georgians being driven out and flooding the Atlanta area.
"I looked into his eyes and saw his soul, and it sure looked like Gen. Sherman's." -- President George W. Bush, speaking of Vladimir Putin
James Traub has an excellent piece on the front page of today's New York Times 'Week in Review' section entitled 'Taunting the Bear'. It's a brief history of the Russian-Georgian "dance", and Georgia's own 'transgressions' against the separatist enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
There is also a news report about the current situation in today's NYT.
According to CNN, Georgian troops have withdrawn from the South Ossetian capital as the Russian military might is taking its toll. The Georgians are also hoping that this withdrawal could set the stage for a cease-fire. Russians have bombed the Tbilisi airport and targeted residetial areas.
Fighting has also spread to the other "breakaway republic" that Russia supports, Abkhazia. Yes, Russian troops are serving as "peacekeepers" there as well. Ukraine, another NATO wannabe, has expressed support for Georgia, implying that it may impede Russian fleet operations in the Black Sea by not allowing the fleet to return to its port should it leave to transport troops and supplies to Georgia.
From the South Ossetian and Abkhazian viewpoints, Georgia is getting a taste of its own medicine from Russia. They view Georgia as the neighborhood bully.
Wonder how the Chechens feel?
CNN's Wolf Blitzer spoke with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili this morning. He confirmed Russian attacks on civilian targets. He also noted that some unexploded Russian ordnance had something like "Greetings to America, greetings to NATO" on it (in Russian). He reiterated his claim that the Russian operations are analogous to the Afghanistan and Czechoslovakia invasions. He also repeated his desire for a cease-fire.
It is in the West's best interests to put the lid on this situation, and quickly before it gets even uglier.
"Russia can have at its borders only enemies or vassals." -- George F. Kennan
Well, after thinking the coast was clear I purchased my $2,000 round-trip ticket to Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia, for the final meeting (6-10 October 2008) of our NATO-OSCE South Caucasus River Monitoring project.
I knew that routing myself through Heathrow was a bad omen.
Unless you've been living in a cave, you know that Russia and Georgia are skirmishing over the "breakaway republic" of South Ossetia.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is determined the bring South Ossetia and Abkhazia back under Georgian rule. Russia doesn't want him to.
The problem boils down to Russia's support for South Ossetia's independence, essentially as a way to "stick it" to Georgia for its desire to move closer to the West by wanting to join the EU and NATO.
Russia is also supporting Abkhazia's quest for independence. Interesting thing is that Russia has issued passports to many South Ossetians (and Abkhazians) and has used that as a rationale for invading Georgia: it needs to protect its citizens.
Russia also viewed quite unfavorably the West's recent recognition of Kosovo's independence, and wants to give the West a taste of its own medicine. "You guys want an independent Kosovo? Okay, then support a free South Ossetia!" Okay, let's free Chechnya!
The fact that there are two important (to the West, anyway) pipelines running from Azerbaijan through Georgia and into Turkey adds additional intrigue. These are the BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) oil pipeline and the BTE (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) gas pipeline.
Yes, the "New Great Game" is in full swing in the South Caucasus; Russia versus the West, struggling for hegemony. Let the games begin!
"He who shoots first laughs last." -- Alexsander Lebed
I just saw a TV commerical in which two well-scrubbed lab rats announced that Shell will be giving away $2,900 in free gas each day. That is a little over $1 million per year.
In the quarter ending 30 June 2008, Shell earned $11.56 billion, 33% higher than the same quarter in 2007. In all of 2007, Shell earned about $27.5 billion.
Thank you, Shell.
"The meek shall inherit the earth but not its mineral rights."-- J. Paul Getty
Today is former Attorney General Alberto "I Don't Recall" Gonzales' birthday. George Bush's former lapdog and favorite Hispanic is 53. !Feliz Cumpleaños, Alberto! "What is it about George W. Bush that makes you want to serve him?" -- Monica Goodling, former DoJ aide "I don't recall. " - Alberto Gonzales
Alexandra Marks wrote a very good story on "Rethinking the post-9/11 strategy" in the 1 August 2008 edition of the Christian Science Monitor. You can also listen to her audio report.
She reported that folks on both sides of the political fence agree on two things: 1) there has not been a successful terrorist attack within the USA since 9/11; and 2) Al-Qaeda is losing support in Iraq and is on the run.
The first point will get no arguments and the second point is certainly true, but let's remember one thing: there was no Al-Qaeda in Iraq until we invaded and "created" the organization. So claiming victory over an organization that your invasion created is disingenuity personified. This seems to be a difficult fact for people to grasp.
This is an example of the "Field of Dreams - Flypaper" approach to fight terrorists: if you start a war anywhere, they will come, then you can kill them off and claim victory. It assumes one thing not in evidence: that terrorist organizations have a fixed number of fighters, so you can kill them anywhere (e.g., the "fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here" mentality).
It's not a zero-sum game.
Our experience in Iraq and Afghanistan reminds me of Pete Seeger's great song, Waist Deep in the Big Muddy. Seeger wrote it in the 1960s and it soon became a favorite of anti-Vietnam war protesters, although it's ostensibly about a World War II incident in Louisiana.
"But every time I read the paper them old feelings come on. We're waist deep in the Big Muddy, the big fool says to push on." -- Pete Seeger
Just so we don't lull ourselves into thinking that doing water work in emerging regions is not without danger, here is a piece from the Boston Globe about the release of missionary Steven Godbold, 49, who was working with The Evangelical Alliance Mission (TEAM) based in Wheaton, IL.
Godbold has served in Chad since 1991. He was captured on 10 October 2007 in Zoumri in the Tibesti region of northern Chad by the rebel group Movement for Democracy and Justice in Tchad (MDJT). Godbold was assisitng a Chadian NGO transport water well-drilling equipment into the Tibesti region to provide potable water to the residents. The project was being funded by the U.S. Department of Defense.
TEAM issued a statement on 24 July 2008. No ransom was paid, nor were any concessions made to secure his unconditional release.
Godbold, the married father of four, said:
"But I was never physically mistreated. Nobody ever said a threatening word to me. I was treated almost as a guest of honor. We ate together, we drank tea together, we played cards together and we chatted together."
Thanks to Kevin McCray, Executive Director of NGWA, who sent me this information.
"For a wide door for effective service has opened to me, and there are many adversaries." -- 1 Corinthians 16:9 (New American Standard Bible)
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