The title of this post evokes a "tell me something I don't know" response.
Monica Duffy Toft penned this provocative Op-Ed piece in the Christian Science Monitor about the nature of the Iraq civil war. Toft is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
In studying civil wars from 1940-2000, she concluded:
- nearly half (46%) of all ongoing civil wars involve religion;
- Islam has been involved in more than 80% of all religious civil wars; and
- religious wars rarely end in negotiated settlements but until one side achieves victory.
She posits that a negotiated settlement will be difficult because although the Shiites will want to remain in power, it will be difficult to know with whom to bargain because the Shiites themselves are divided on how to rule Iraq. But by withdrawing, the USA will force the Shiites and the Sunnis to come together through their dislike for their mutual classical adversaries, the Kurds and the Iranians.
There are downsides to this exit strategy, to be sure. But Toft feels that we do not have a choice between victory and failure, but between a less costly failure and a more costly failure.
Great choice - I believe they call it a 'Hobson's choice'.
"Our nation must come together to unite." -- President George W. Bush, 4 June 2001
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